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Global Warming causing hurricanes
Transcript of keynote speech by Donald
Burfitt-Dons continued
At
the Global Warming Alliance we monitor hurricane activity generally
as a function of the total energy in the system, and have been saying
for years that more energy is being released via hurricanes in the recent
past. We believe it is due to global warming.
Studies
by bodies with far greater resources than ours now tend to agree. The
IPCC in its 2007 report said that although the total number of tropical
hurricanes was still 87, give or take 10, the power had increased notably.
A separate study by NOAA concluded that the energy has increased by
around 70 % showing up as a 15% increase in wind speeds.
Question:
And what about extra tropical cyclones? Are they increasing in numbers
and strength?
There
have been plenty of studies to resolve the question. For example, in
2001 a study by two teams led by Gulev and Zhang pulled together by
the University of Tartu in Estonia said that Arctic cyclones had increased
in numbers and intensity. Others disagree.
We believe that both numbers and intensity are on the rise. One has
to be a bit cautious because of the improved data recording abilities
over recent years which bias the figures towards the latest information.
Nevertheless due to the patterns we have been seeing lately there are
good reasons to conclude that we are witnessing real changes. Continued
Donald Burfitt-Dons talks about the
rising tropopause
the
planet's way of recycling heat energy/
the first Brazilian hurricane/cyclones
outside the tropics/how
the GWA monitors hurricane activity/the
rising tropopause/ETC activity
since the 50s/l ETC activity
since 1990/ the effect of an ETC
on London /how superwinds form/
the impact of ETCs on aircraft/data
from 21 recent storms/ UK as a breeding
ground for tornadoes/
the impact on the insurance industry/
future implications /threat
of ETCs to Europe and UK
